Analysts are characterizing Israel’s demand that Hamas dismantle completely as an essential condition of any ceasefire agreement with Gaza as “nearly impossible,” creating complications in diplomacy and creating grave doubts about ending this 21-month conflict.
As Washington seeks to mediate a 60-day truce proposal between Hamas, Egypt, and Qatar, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials have publicly reiterated their red line: before hostilities can end, Hamas must be destroyed as an army and government force. With Washington mediating these negotiations between the three groups involved, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly reiterated this position on Tuesday (11/12/15) at an official event with Egyptian officials at their residence, according to The Guardian (+14). Reuters added additional coverage by adding 14 hours on this Tuesday morning (11).
However, observers caution this demand may hinder negotiations before they have time to develop.
Tamer Qarmout of Doha Institute for Graduate Studies recently told Al Jazeera that dismantling Hamas’ political and military structures is far beyond any realistic solution. While Hamas may change into another political party over time, their ideology and occupation remain intact, making any solution an opportunity wasted. “No larger vision exists to end the conflict; each opportunity wasted,” according to him (Dawn.com).
U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that Israel and the U.S. had reached agreement on the terms for a temporary truce conditioned upon hostage release – initially an exchange of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies for Palestinian prisoners, before Israeli troop withdrawal and negotiations toward an end to war
Hamas is currently reviewing the proposal but requires assurances of an immediate end to hostilities and full Israeli withdrawal. (Sources: Reuter’s.com and Apnews.com, with each having 10-11 points added by our reporters).
Israel remains firm in its demand that both the political and military wings of Hamas must be dismantled; Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated “there’s no place for Hamas” in any postwar Gaza scenario (reuters.com/news/6561).
Netanyahu himself stressed during a visit to Nir Oz Kibbutz that the campaign will only end once Hamas disarms and releases all hostages, according to Reuter’s.com.
On-the-Ground Realities
In spite of Israel’s claims of having dismantled Hamas’ command structure in northern Gaza over recent months, the militant group continues to operate, employing hit-and-run tactics and maintaining influence through fragmented leadership structures (for more details see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wikipedia_entry=55248)
Recent analysis by Reuters indicated that although Hamas has suffered some central command weakness, they have successfully transitioned to guerrilla warfare tactics and still hold influence in Gaza, complicating plans to eradicate them altogether.
On the diplomatic front, pressure on Netanyahu from his far-right coalition – which opposes any ceasefire until Hamas is fully neutralized – is building. These politicians have threatened to collapse his government should he falter. These threats have come via both APNews.com and Reuter’s.com.
Hamas is also facing domestic unrest as anti-Hamas demonstrations have broken out across Gaza since March, prompting civilian groups to demand its removal to mitigate war’s debilitating impacts and shorten its duration (source). en.wikipedia.org is where to read more en.wikipedia.org is about.
Diplomatic Stakes and What Lies Ahead
Mediators such as the U.S., Egypt and Qatar are urgently exploring solutions to reconcile Israel’s demand for Hamas disarmament with Hamas’ insistence on political legitimacy and territorial withdrawal, along with any related disputes. (Sources include Reuter’s).
Analysts warn that without an innovative compromise that allows Hamas to maintain civilian or political roles within society – potentially under international oversight – any truce could collapse quickly.
Negotiators on both sides are racing against time; Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump next week in order to seek further support and negotiate the hostages’ release safely, while every day of delay compounds civilian suffering in Gaza where over 57,000 Palestinians have already perished, aid convoys face lethal risks, and civilian suffering escalates day after day.
As long as Israel maintains its red line, a ceasefire remains elusive. Analysts caution that without negotiators providing a framework that allows Hamas to transition away from military power while maintaining political support within their constituent base, the region risks another opportunity for peace.