Indian refiners are reportedly preparing to scale back imports of Russian crude oil following strong pressure from the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump, according to multiple media and industry reports. The move marks a potential shift in one of the most significant energy trade relationships to emerge since the start of the Ukraine war, and could have major geopolitical and economic implications.
U.S. Pressure Mounts on New Delhi
Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India has become one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude, helping Moscow maintain its export revenues despite Western sanctions. However, sources familiar with the matter say the Trump administration has been urging New Delhi to “significantly reduce” its purchases as part of a broader strategy to tighten pressure on Russia.
According to senior officials, U.S. envoys held a series of discreet meetings with Indian energy authorities and refinery executives in recent weeks. Washington reportedly warned that continued high levels of Russian oil imports could lead to financial and trade consequences, including secondary sanctions on entities facilitating these purchases.
“The message was firm but clear,” one source said. “Either India shows visible steps to reduce Russian oil imports, or it risks being caught in the crossfire of U.S. sanctions.”
Indian Refiners Reassessing Supply
India’s state-owned and private refiners — including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries — have started reassessing their procurement plans for the coming months. Industry insiders say refiners are exploring alternative supplies from the Middle East, West Africa, and the United States to offset any reduction in Russian crude volumes.
“Companies are not cutting Russian imports immediately,” an industry executive explained. “But they are preparing for a scenario where political pressure escalates further. Flexibility is key.”
Russian oil currently accounts for about 30–35% of India’s total crude imports, up from less than 2% before the Ukraine war. Any reduction could have ripple effects on global oil markets, particularly if India shifts back toward more expensive grades from other suppliers.
Balancing Energy Security and Geopolitics
The Indian government has so far maintained a careful balancing act between its strategic partnership with the United States and its energy relationship with Russia. Officials in New Delhi argue that cheap Russian oil has helped India contain inflation and stabilize domestic fuel prices.
However, they also acknowledge that worsening U.S.-Russia tensions could narrow India’s room for maneuver. “India will act in its national interest,” an energy ministry official told reporters. “But we are fully aware of the geopolitical environment.”
Possible Global Market Impact
Analysts warn that even a modest cut in Russian oil imports by India could tighten global supply and push prices higher, particularly if Chinese demand continues to rebound. For Moscow, the move would represent a blow to its export strategy, which has relied heavily on Asian markets to offset Western embargoes.
Meanwhile, Washington is expected to continue pressing allies and partners to align more closely with its sanctions strategy, signaling tougher energy diplomacy ahead.
The Road Ahead
While no formal announcement has been made, refiners are expected to gradually reduce spot purchases of Russian crude over the coming months. How far the cuts go may depend on both political negotiations and market dynamics, including global oil prices.
For New Delhi, the challenge will be to protect its energy security while navigating rising geopolitical pressure from Washington. The coming weeks may prove decisive in shaping the next phase of India’s energy strategy — and its position on the global oil map.